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The China-United States rivalry and hedging strategy of Indonesia |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Title | The China-United States rivalry and hedging strategy of Indonesia |
| Creator | Muhammad Rendy Anwar |
| Contributor | Sunida Aroonpipat, Advisor |
| Publisher | Thammasat University |
| Publication Year | 2565 |
| Keyword | Indonesia, Foreign policy, Joko Widodo, Hedging, China, United States of America |
| Abstract | This study examined the hedging strategy as an alternative framework to balancing or bandwagoning. Hedging implies ambiguous behavior by a medium-power state to minimize risk and maximize benefits from unpredictable conduct by great powers. This research analyzes Indonesia during the Joko Widodo (Jokowi) administration (2014–2019 and 2019–present) as a case study on how Indonesia hedged against the geopolitical rivalry between the United States (US) and China in the Indo-Pacific region. Using five categories devised by Alfred Gerstl (perceptions; political-diplomatic engagement; economic engagement; limited balancing; and limited bandwagoning), Indonesia hedged against the US and China to maintain economic interdependence with China while countering Chinese assertiveness in Indonesia's exclusive economic zone (Zona Ekonomi Eksklusif; ZEE) in the South China Sea (SCS). Although Jokowi remained favorably disposed to China, Indonesia strove for economic diversification to avoid overdependence on China and enhance capital gains by strengthening strategic partnerships with other nations during his second term, including Australia, South Korea, and the US through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), launched by US President Joe Biden in 2022. Jokowi’s reported awareness that China poses an increasing sovereignty threat in the SCS led to more proactivity in his second term through military exercises with potential balancers such as the US, India, and Japan. Indonesia retains limited military cooperation with China despite fears of communism and Chinese assertiveness. Diversifying military partners avoids military reliance due to suspicion of US interference in domestic affairs. Indonesia has also strengthened its role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to avoid the great power rivalry. Instead of an economic-focused foreign policy prioritized during Jokowi’s first term, he has become increasingly involved in regional and multilateral forums. This research augmented previous studies about hedging against China by examining US relations, with differences between Widodo's first and second terms and how they cohere with Indonesian foreign policy doctrine. A newly reconceptualized hedging framework was used to provide a comprehensive analysis. |
