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An alternative mathematical model for estimating the expected backlog of a base-stock policy |
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| รหัสดีโอไอ | |
| Title | An alternative mathematical model for estimating the expected backlog of a base-stock policy |
| Creator | Prapanrat Rueangsombut |
| Contributor | Jirachai Buddhakulsomsiri, Advisor |
| Publisher | Thammasat University |
| Publication Year | 2568 |
| Keyword | Base-stock policy, Expected backlog, Simulation, Analytical model, Inventory management |
| Abstract | Managing inventory requires balancing customer service with cost efficiency. The base-stock policy, in which inventory is replenished to a predetermined level, is widely applied across industries. A key performance measure under this policy is the expected backlog, which reflects the average unmet demand during replenishment lead time. Classical formulas for estimating backlog are mathematically convenient but rely on restrictive assumptions that often misrepresent system performance, particularly by ignoring the overlap between on-hand inventory and demand during review or replenishment. This leads to inflated backlog estimates, overly conservative inventory policies, and higher holding costs.This study proposes an alternative analytical model that integrates both lead time demand and review period demand to approximate simulation outcomes while maintaining practical simplicity. The model is evaluated against classical formulas and simulation results across multiple scenarios. Results show that the proposed approach closely matches simulation outcomes and significantly reduces discrepancies observed in classical methods. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the effects of lead time variability, demand uncertainty, and base-stock levels on expected backlog, offering actionable insights for more effective inventory management |
